Tag Archives: Monetary Policy

Inflation, the Dollar, and a Recession Double Dip

Today’s Coffee and Markets podcast focuses on the ramifications of higher interest rates, the need to protect the dollar, and the possibility of a double dip recession.

Exporting Money

Since we no longer need to manufacture consumer goods (which we can import for the cost of money creation, essentially for free), we’ve turned to other bases for our industrial economy. But we won’t be able to rely forever on being able to trade money for essential goods and services that we no longer make. And on some future day, this could provide the occasion for a major, and positive, transformation of American industry.

The D-word Is Back

Let’s try to put some perspective on the stock market’s rally from its March lows. But is the current advance sustainable? It’s possible that the government can continue to pump up the prices of financial assets over the next five years, even as the real economy fails to recover robustly. It’s also possible for the stock market to someday recognize reality, and experience a much worse decline than the one we saw last November. There’s no way to know from here.

The Federal Reserve Walks a Knife Edge

The Fed wants to nudge real, risk-bearing interest rates lower in order to pump the economy back up, but they can only do so at the cost of inflation. And in the meantime, the Treasury is issuing new debt at an unbelievable pace, to fund the highest Federal deficits in history. At a certain point, it all becomes too much. We may find ourselves facing a political choice between accepting much higher inflation rates, and continued weakness in the private-sector economy.

- March 22, 2010 -

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