Tag Archives: Fed

Nearing an Inflection Point?

Market participants will pay very close attention to two key upcoming readings on employment. This morning, the Labor Department reports initial claims for unemployment for last week. And tomorrow, they’ll give the initial reading (subject to revision) on job creation in November. A sense is growing that the readings will surprise on the upside, and show an employment picture that is improving slowly but steadily, suggesting that economic conditions are finally on the mend.

As the Economy Turns, Who Should Get the Credit? Who Will?

Today’s Coffee and Markets podcast primarily focuses on a David Leonhardt piece in the New York Times on who gets the credit for the apparent financial turnaround — or at least keeping things from getting worse.

Bond Market Distress

I’ve been telling people privately to watch the bond market for about a week now. Since last Thursday, we’ve seen a very sharp, fast drop in prices for medium and long-term US Treasury securities, which (in consequence) increases yields. The yield of the 10-year note, which is a critical indicator for mortgage rates, has leapt up above 3.70%, from below 3% just a few weeks ago, and from 2% at the beginning of the year. The yield curve is now steeper than it’s been in decades.

The Fed’s New Approach

Last week, at the height of the flap over AIG bonuses, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pulled out his biggest weapon and fired it. He announced a $1.15 trillion expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. This breathtaking amount of inflation is intended to finally break the logjam that is preventing consumers from getting new mortgages, car loans and other kinds of credit. But there’s a problem. Bernanke may be firing at the wrong target.

- March 21, 2010 -

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