Erickson: GOP Can’t Win Without Conservatives

RedState’s Erick Erickson makes two interesting points about the loss of Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman in NY-23 and how it’s actually a win for conservatives across the country.

First, the GOP now must recognize it will either lose without conservatives or will win with conservatives. In 2008, many conservatives sat home instead of voting for John McCain. Now, in NY-23, conservatives rallied and destroyed the Republican candidate the establishment chose.

I have said all along that the goal of activists must be to defeat Scozzafava. Doug Hoffman winning would just be gravy. A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate.

Secondly, and just as importantly, there has all of a sudden been a huge movement among some activists to go the third party route. We see in NY-23 that this is not possible as third parties are not viable.

Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.

The only blemish on the Republican record tonight in the three major races is sure to shake up the GOP in Washington. As Erick points out, the GOP is nothing without it’s conservative members and grassroots activists around the country will use this loss as a rallying cry to ensure that the party leadership does not forget their largest voting contingent with next year’s key mid-term election just around the corner.

The next target for conservatives in the GOP: Florida’s 2010 U.S. Senate race between Washington establishment favorite Governor Charlie Christ and conservative grassroots rock star Marco Rubio. As they say on Iron Chef: “Let the battle begin!”

Obama Political Capital Damaged by Key Losses Tonight

Despite what the White House and Congressional Democrats will say tomorrow, tonight’s two loses for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia are a blow to the Obamamania that Democrats have clutched onto tighter than a 5-year-old grips his teaddy-bear. The whole-hearted embracing of Obama by Jon Corzine and Creigh Deeds, including non-stop appearances, TV, radio and print ads featuring the “Hope and Change” mantra of 2008, were not enough to win the day.

The one and only Dan McLaughlin put it thusly:

Obama tried to help Deeds and Corzine, and was unable to do so. He can help nobody but himself. And that fact alone is hugely significant.

Obama had no coattails tonight. None.

The excitement of last year, the euphoria of Obama’s election that drove many young people and independents to passionately vote for Democrats did not continue as Americans had their first chance to vote on the policies and practices of the philosophy they elected last November. Today, Americans rejected Obama the politician even if they still like Obama the man, as indicated in some exit polls.

This may be a blow for 2010, that’s yet to be seen, but one effect that is sure to reverberate through Washington tomorrow is Obama’s loss of political capital. “Blue Dogs” in the Democratic party, especially those from swing districts across the country, saw tonight that Obama’s endorsement cannot help them win and may even help them lose. That will be a blow to liberal efforts in Congress in the health care and cap-and-trade debates, as many of the Democrat fence sitters may start to side with the GOP, running away from drastic Obama-backed policies that could come back to haunt them in next year’s elections.

GOP Sweeps Governor Races

It’s a good night so far for the Republican party. Bob McDonnell won tonight with a margin in the neighborhood of 20 points over Democrat Creigh Deeds, more than a 20 point swing in GOP vs Dem votes from Obama’s 2008 race just a year ago. That’s a big victory for republicans anyway you slice it.

Now comes word that New Jersey’s next Governor will also be a Republican. Chris Christie is going to win, probably by about 5 points giving the GOP two key victories over Democrats in what many are seeing as a referendum on the liberal agenda of President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats.

One important race is left this evening, the NY-23 battle between Conservative Doug Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens. At this point Hoffman is down 4% with just over half of the vote in, however, there are at several cities where voting machine problems will delay the reporting of results until at least tomorrow morning. If the GOP goes three for three tonight, it could be a bad omen for Democrats in next year’s mid-term election.

Exits: Independents Supporting GOP in New Jersey and Virginia

CNN exit polls estimate that Republican Chris Christie pulled in a majority of independent voters in New Jersey in today’s gubernatorial election.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie took 58 percent of the independent vote while incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, got only 31 percent . Independent candidate Chris Daggett got just 9 percent of the independent vote. Independents made up 28 percent of the voters in New Jersey race.

New Jersey is still too close to call, but these numbers are good for Christie. And if he carries the trend started by Republican Bob McDonnell tonight, the GOP could pick up their second big win of the evening. McDonnell got an estimated 65% of independents in his 20 point blowout in Virginia.

Something to keep in mind, independents supported Obama over McCain in 2008 and were key to his victory, however, since then the President’s approval rating among the politically unaffiliated has plummeted. It looks like those votes may be moving back to the GOP. If those numbers hold in Republican races across the country in next year’s mid-term elections, it could be bad news for Congressional Democrats and the President’s liberal agenda.

Voting Machine Glitches Reported in NY-23

The Watertown Daily Times is reporting that there broken election machines in St. Lawrence County may delay election results in four cities: Louisville, Waddington, Rossie and Clare.

St. Lawrence County Board of Elections Deputy Commissioner Thomas Nichols said the new election machines had scanner malfunctions in some communities earlier today.

Results from these counties may not be available until tomorrow.

Tonight’s Exit Polls May be Bad News for Dems in 2010

ABC News has an analysis of the exit polling from tonight’s elections and think it may predict some bad news for Democrats in 2010. The main issue of concern - the economy. A whopping 90% of New Jersey voters said they were worried about the direction our our nation’s economy. That number went down only slightly to 85% in Virginia.

In Virginia, voters who expressed the highest levels of economic concern supported McDonnell by a very wide margin, 73-26 percent. Moreover, 46 percent called the economy the single top issue in their vote, far and away No.1, and those economy voters favored McDonnell over Deeds by a 10-point margin in preliminary results.

This support for McDonnell led to his early victory and a sweep for the GOP of all the top statewide elected offices in the Commonwealth tonight. We’ll see in the coming hours how this effects the outcome of New Jersey’s election. For 2010, if this astronomically high worry about the economy (and our current 10%+ unemployment rate) continues, it cannot be good news for the Democrats (and maybe some incumbent Congressional Republicans) in 2010. As Bill Clinton’s once famous Democrat consultant James Carville once said, “It’s the economy stupid.”

News from NJ: Corzine Heavy Districts “Underperforming Badly”

An insider Democrat source (take that for what it’s worth) is telling the Save Jersey Blog that Democrat turnout that Corzine is counting on in Northern New Jersey is 25% below expectations.

“It’s bad. [Democrats] freaking out about the low turnout in Newark.”

I’m sure this doesn’t count the dead vote for Corzine, which I hear is going to be quite significant in the morgues and cemeteries this year. Those Democrat candidates in Jersey are popular with the dead folks.

Election Night in America

It’s Election Night 2009, the first time Americans have returned to the polls since Obama’s victory a year ago, and even though his name is not on the ballot in New Jersey, Virginia and New York’s 23rd Congressional District, those three races are very important to the near future of both the Democrats and Republicans. A sweep by the GOP tonight may be seen as a canary in the coal mine for the President’s liberal agenda, a sign that Americans not only don’t like his policies, but that they’re also willing to turn the tide by voting for candidates that offer a different vision than Democrats do now.

Stay tuned to the front page of TNL tonight for updates on the election results and stay tuned here to WHIP for highlight stories throughout the night.

Obama, Meet TwitPic

Thanks to Mark Knoller, we have this gem from TwitPic of Obama, alone in the Oval Office and starring out the window. Knoller asks in the photo’s caption, “Wonder what he’s thinking about?” and the comments below the picture don’t disappoint. One commenter, “tweachisown,” thinks the President is silently saying, “I wish they all saw me as a god.” Another, “zener39″ thinks Obama is wondering, “Where O where did I put my golf balls…” He is, after all, the Golfer in Chief.

It may have been a blatant attempt to recreate the famous picture of Kennedy hunched over his desk in the Oval Office, or just a candid snap pushed out to the world instantly through the wonders of social media, who knows, Knoller didn’t provide context for the picture. What do you think President Obama is thinking in this photo? Leave your suggestions in the comments below.

Lieberman to Support GOP Filibuster of Democrat’s Health Care Bill

Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) announced today that he would support GOP efforts to filibuster the Democrat’s health care bill drafted behind closed doors by Harry Reid and advisors to President Obama. The Connecticut Senator is opposed to any bill that includes a public-option, insisting that the government backed plan is “just asking for trouble for the taxpayers, for the premium payers and for the national debt. I don’t think we need it now.”

It seems that Reid’s plan of offering the “opt-out” for states is not enough to grab Lieberman. It’s also not enough to snag Olympia Snowe, the lone Republican who supported the bill in its earlier form in the Senate Finance Committee. Snowe said that the inclusion of the public option gives the government backed plan an “unfair advantage” in the marketplace.

“It does give the government a disproportionate advantage in the marketplace. They can set … the prices and certainly negotiate those prices at whatever level,” she told Fox News, adding that she was “surprised and disappointed” by Reid’s decision.

Another Democrat, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana also raised doubts about the Democrat’s bill saying that the plan may, “substantially increase the deficit.” Bayh and Lieberman are expressing many of the same worries that the GOP has about such a plan with Lieberman saying, “in the end, the taxpayers are going to pay and probably all people will have health insurance are going to see their premiums go up because there’s going to be cost shifting as there has been for Medicare and Medicaid.”

The inclusion of the Public Option in the final version of the Senate bill was forced upon Democrats according to Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin. The Senator said that the liberal left, and their backers in Congress, insisted they would not support a bill that lacked the government managed plan. Senators Burris, Sanders, and Feingold, some of the most left-leaning guys in the chamber, all insisted that they would shoot down any measure that did not include the public option, it’s also a factor the White House and President Obama has been pushing since the 2008 campaign as an important step to achieving the goal of universal coverage that Democrats have sought now for a generation or more.

The abandonment of Lieberman, Snowe and maybe Bayh means that Reid is short of the needed 60 votes on his side of the Capitol. Also shaky are Democrats Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Reid and Obama will need 60 votes just to get the debate on this closed and bring it up for final passage.

Speaker Pelosi may not have the votes she needs to pass this in the House either, but with the rules in the House, it will be easier for her to turn the tide in that chamber than it may be for Reid to reach the magic number in the Senate. At this point passage of this plan, written as is, looks difficult, but then again, this is Washington, home of the back room, late night deal, so don’t count it out entirely. What is clear, is that with a successful filibuster threat in the Senate, a quick passage of this package is unlikely and that may give the GOP, and fiscally concerned Democrats, a chance to scuttle this legislation.

- November 7, 2009 -

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