I Realize That People May Be Tired Of Me Pointing This Out . . .

But it probably is worth emphasizing anew that Barack Obama is not a popular President:

President Obama’s job approval numbers will dip below 50% for the first time today in Gallup’s daily tracking poll, according to a Gallup official.

“Gallup Daily tracking results just in. Obama will be below 50% for the first time when we update our numbers at 1:00 p.m.,” wrote Gallup.com managing news editor Lymari Morales on Twitter.

His approval numbers have bounced down to the 50% mark several times, driven by weaker support from independents and Republicans, but hadn’t crossed it.

The man in the White House is no longer a political dynamo. Maybe he will become one again, but for now, he’s just an ordinary politician, fighting to make sure that people like him.

Just like all other politicians, as a matter of fact.

Should the President Have Friends?

Two questions to start off our discussion at this new blog:

1. How important is it for the President of the United States to have good personal relationships with foreign heads of state? Does it help to have friends?

2. Is there anybody President Obama could identify as his friend?

I’m serious. We don’t expect every president to be George H.W. Bush, whose principal virtue as President was his immense Rolodex of contacts around the world, which he deployed to great effect in smoothing the way for German reunification and building the coalition to drive Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. But compare his son, Obama’s predecessor. George W. Bush got on famously with British Prime Minister Tony Blair; despite their domestic political differences, theirs was as much a partnership as an alliance. He had strong and natural ties with Australian Prime Minister John Howard. He bonded with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koziumi. He inherited his father’s close ties with the Saudi Ambassador, Prince Bandar, and came to office already having a strong relationship with Mexican President Vicente Fox. He seemed to hit it off with Vladimir Putin. He worked closely and well with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. And he spent a lot of time, under the most trying of circumstances, working with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. And I’m sure I’m overlooking some people.

Not all of those friendships were necessarily for the best: the Saudi relationship with the DC establishment in general and the Bushes in particular has been overly cozy over the years, and Bush got little of practical value and much grief from playing nice with Putin. And certainly Bush had his failures in bilateral diplomacy, like the inability to bring Turkey into the Iraq War. But on the whole, by investing time and personal capital in getting to know foreign heads of state, Bush does seem to have helped ease, around the margins, some of the strains created by a stormy era in American foreign policy.

Obama is supposed to be, in the public mind, a superior diplomat, given that he loves to tell us how much better he’s doing for our relations with the world. But where are his friends? He’s gone out of his way repeatedly to insult Gordon Brown, disparage Karzai, abandon Uribe, undermine Benjamin Netanyahu, and generally exacerbate tensions with one ally after another (Canada, India, etc.). And while he’s made diplomatic overtures to states like Iran and Venezuela, even Obama’s staunchest defenders would not call Chavez and Ahmadenijad his buddies. I can’t for the life of me think of who his friends are, what world leaders he’s really spent time building a relationship with. A cynic would say that he thinks them unnecessary, preferring as he does to rely on multilateral institutions rather than bilateral relationships. But Obama was a legislator for 12 years; surely he knows that even in a legislative body, it helps to have somebody to watch your back and play poker with. Yet, even among the NGOs I don’t see who he has bonded with.

Have I missed someone? Is it too early to be asking this question? Or does the personal touch just not matter?

Hoffman ‘Unconcedes’ in NY-23, but Chances of Winning are Still Long

Conservative Doug Hoffman, appearing on Glenn Beck’s radio show yesterday, announced that he was ‘unconceding’ upon hearing the news that the election has tightened by more than 2,000 votes after recanvassing. On Election Night, Hoffman lost to Democrat Bill Owens by 5,335 votes, but the recanvassing has narrowed that margin to 3,026 votes, with 10,000 absentee ballots still outstanding.

Hoffman acknowledged that he would not have conceded on Election Night had he known the vote was this close. In order for him to overtake Owens, Hoffman needs to garner more than 65% of the absentee ballots, a tall order. Even Hoffman admitted it was a “long shot” when he spoke to Beck.

Owens was sworn in on November 6th, just in time for him to be a part of the healthcare reform circus in the House. Should Hoffman pull off the miracle upset, Owens would be removed from office.

The White House Attacks Edmunds for Reaching Politically Uncomfortable Conclusion on Cash for Clunkers

Don’t you find it interesting the amount of effort this White House puts toward going out of its way to discredit its critics by name?

In the latest episode, they take aim at an analysis of the CARS (”Cash-for-Clunkers”) program by auto analyst Edmunds.com, contrasting its methods and conclusions with those of a report by the Council of Economic Advisers.

The essence of the White House’s critique of Edmunds is that they reached the “wrong” conclusions.

The White House hates the fact that the Edmunds story contained a brilliant headline. The Obamians won’t quote it of course. But in case you missed it, Edmunds concluded that each vehicle sold with a CARS-program assist actually cost taxpayers more than $24,000.

How could that have happened? Because a lot of the sales of vehicles that took place with a taxpayer assist would have happened anyway. According to Edmunds, the number of INCREMENTAL sales (sales that would not have occurred without the Clunker subsidy) was closer to 125,000 than to the nearly 700,000 the government claims.

Did that make sense to you? Nearly 700,000 vehicles were purchased this summer with a taxpayer subsidy, but only about 125,000 of those purchases would NOT have occurred without the subsidy.

The White House accuses Edmunds of not publishing their analytical methodology. Either I’m blind or they’re lying. The analysis was based on an examination of parallel sales trends of vehicles (like luxury cars) that were NOT eligible for a CARS subsidy. These trends showed a steady improvement in overall vehicle sales over the subsidy period. Edmunds assumed the historical sales ratios between luxury cars and non-luxury models, and they compared them to the actual sales increase observed for the CARS-eligible categories. That gave them an above-trend increase of about 125,000 units. Whether or not it’s true, it at least makes sense.

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What we actually saw in September, after CARS ended, was that sales collapsed, in fact to almost the worst annual selling rate we’ve seen all year. This is what you’d expect if the CARS program didn’t actually stimulate demand, but instead “borrowed” it from subsequent months.

But if Edmunds is correct, then you would expect that car sales will show slow but steady improvement over the next few months, as the statistical noise from CARS washes out. I’ll be watching like a hawk, and will give you the scoop as soon as the data are in.

One data point I found fascinating, and which might support the expectation of slow improvement, is the average selling price for a new vehicle during CARS: at a touch over $26,000 before incentives, it’s not far off the historical average. That suggests a market that isn’t in the process of fundamentally readjusting to lower valuations. If this turns out to be true, it hugely good news for the auto industry.

What is the White House saying instead? They’re arguing a straw man. They’re not refuting in any way Edmund’s case that the auto market may be in the process of slowly healing, even without free money smilingly dispensed by Barack Obama.

What they’re saying is something totally different, and in fact quite defensible: that the industry ramped up production runs in order to meet the extra demand from the CARS program. Hilariously, they point out that private automakers did this based on their sales forecasts, and so the market must be right.

First off, much of US automaking capacity is no longer private. The UAW, along with their business partners the taxpayers, now own a good chunk of GM and Chrysler. The government is part of the decision-making process, and is entirely happy to force non-market outcomes when they think it makes sense.

More to the point, the US automakers largely stopped making cars in the first half of this year, so they were running on almost no inventory. At some point, you just have to rebuild or you have nothing to sell.

And third, it would have been clear from the trends noted by Edmunds that demand has been recovering slowly even without the CARS stimulus.

Instead, the White House is stressing that the accelerated production runs acted to preserve jobs among unionized automakers. This is the point they really care about. Not whether you and I are in the market for a new car.

From an activist economic policymaker’s point of view, what matters isn’t whether demand is picking up. What matters is whether there is an uptick in employment. And it’s right that this should be the White House’s focus.

But the White House has a political problem because they badly need for the rest of us to give them credit for any improvement in the economy. The Clunker program has been convincingly criticized as a waste of public money. It doesn’t serve Obama’s interests to hear anyone say, let alone prove, that economic conditions are getting better on their own.

That’s why he decided to shoot the messenger.

- November 20, 2009 -

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