Word this morning is that there will be some kind of bailout for Greece. I would expect it to take the form of a guarantee of Greek sovereign euro debt, with some degree of explicitness and a time limit. They have to roll over about 23 billion euros over the next few weeks.
To those who have pointed out that the ECB has no fiscal authority: quite right, but that’s not what’s needed here. The ECB and other authorities can guarantee Greek debt just as they did with interbank loans during the financial crisis. I keep thinking there’s a role for currency swaps with the Swiss National Bank, but I haven’t heard talk of that from anyone else.
As I’ve pointed out before, this never felt to me like the kind of crisis that would produce another 2008. The Eurozone people have way too much invested here, on two fronts. First, they can’t afford for anyone to question the viability of the euro, and possibly risk higher interest rates across the zone. Second, they can’t afford to let the IMF rescue Greece, because it would look like they don’t have things under control.
It’s almost comical to hear the French and Germans say “the Greeks will have to get their fiscal house in order without a bailout.” Hearing that, George Soros must be getting deja vu. Not to mention eager, hungry rumbles in his stomach.
The other big reason to backstop Greece is to prevent a run on southern Europe. If Greece falls, the blood will be in the water and the feeding frenzy will be on.
And don’t think we won’t get involved, although if I were Obama I’d do what I can to keep it quiet. There’s a fortune to be made for Goldman and Citi, underwriting ECB-protected bonds.
TNL
