In the old west, two fierce rivals would gather on opposite ends of a dusty street, itchy trigger fingers at the ready. Whoever was the faster, more accurate shooter won, generally with grave consequences for the loser. There aren’t many old west-style dusty streets left in Texas these days, but there is a showdown nonetheless in the race to be the next executive of the Lone Star State, and it’s a shootout.
The Republican party has reigned in Texas since a major upheaval in the 1990s saw them sweep Democrats right out of all the statewide offices. They control the State Legislature, and in a state where judges are elected, the Courts as well. In the many elections since their take over, never before have two heavyweight Republican fought it out for the same high profile statewide office, but this year’s GOP primary features successful, longtime governor, Rick Perry versus the state’s most popular U.S. Senator, Kay Bailey Hutchison who is returning from Washington to challenge Perry.
The campaign is seen, at least in part, as a battle between Rick Perry’s conservatism and Kay Bailey Hutchsion’s more moderate politics, a battle playing out in a larger way in the Repubulican party nationally, and in other GOP primaries across the country, perhaps most notably in the Marco Rubio versus Charlie Crist fight for the US Senate in Florida. Senator Hutchison has faced questions about her more moderate stances in Washington, like her pro-choice position on abortion, and has countered with the mantra that change is needed. Governor Perry has been criticized for toll road proposals but can hang his hat on a successful, fiscally and socially conservative state and ask, “if it ain’t broke why fix it.” The battle for the GOP crown in Texas though, looked like a better bet for Hutchison when it was in it’s infancy in the closing months of 2008.
Just more than a year ago, this race looked like an uphill climb for Perry. The polls showed Hutchison with a lead and the press was asking, “Has Perry served too long?” The Republican party in Texas began splitting along divides, “Rick vs. Kay, who’s side are you on?” The momentum seemed to be in her court. Then the tide began to turn.
Senator Hutchison voted for the massive (and massively unpopular) $700 billion Wall Street bailout, a vote that hit hard with the conservative Texas base back home. She kicked off her campaign to sparse crowds across the state, including an incredibly poor reception in her hometown high school gymnasium, a fact not lost on the state’s media.
Then there’s the damaging string of flip-flops about her commitment to the race.
Last summer Hutchison told Dallas conservative radio talk-show host Mark Davis that she was going to resign her Senate seat to run for Texas Governor. Texans are known for taking advantage of an opportunity when it comes, and this announcement set off a flurry of prospective dominos falling across the Texas Republican landscape. Republican elected officials down ballot had been quietly planning for such a move, but this meant that campaign efforts for races like Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and of course those hoping to replace Hutchison in Washington began to hit a fever pitch. Rising conservative stars like Greg Abbot, Michael Williams, and Ted Cruz all seemed to have an opportunity to make a big splash and move up the ladder in the Lone Star State.
Of course, there’s a flop to this flip.
A few months later, Senator Hutchison pulled back from her previous promise, saying that she wanted to stay in the Senate to fight healthcare reform efforts by the Democrats. A poll showed that 60-pecent of Texans did not want her to leave her seat for the campaign. This news sent an audible “Ugh” through the Texas GOP political set. The campaign’s spokesman said, “She will resign the Senate when the cap-and-trade and health care debates are over,” but that a resignation would come if she won the primary or not.
Now, news this week, that she will not resign her Senate seat at all, and plans to remain in the Senate “indefinitely.” Oh wait, maybe not. The Dallas Morning News’ Wayne Slater, a long-time political journalist in the Lone Star State says, “As Hutchison spokeswoman Jen Baker told me yesterday, Hutchison intends to leave the Senate once the fights over federal health care and cap-and-trade environmental policy are settled.”
You can see how voters and supporters in Texas might get confused.
To add to the heartache, in the midst of the battle in Washington over healthcare reform, Hutchison stated on Monday that she would spend “every waking moment” campaigning for governor with less than two months before the GOP primary. This caused a few grumbles about whether or not she was a “part-time Senator.”
Here’s the Waco Tribune’s take: “We don’t at all argue with Hutchison’s right to run for governor. She and Perry offer Texas Republicans a terrific chance to debate major issues facing our state. But we believe she needs to cede Senate responsibilities to someone who can give this crucial job the time and attention it obviously rates.”
The tightening of this race isn’t just due to Hutchison’s missteps though, Governor Perry has also turned around his image, and his chance to remain the Chairman of the Board in Texas. And it started with a shot of Tea.
In April of 2009, the new anti-tax TEA Party movement began to pick up some serious steam. Tens of thousands of Americans rallied in their hometowns to protest wasteful government spending, high taxes and federal bailouts. Among the speakers at TEA Parties in Texas was Governor Rick Perry. Texas has weathered the current recession better than most states, and Perry had been making the media rounds championing the pro-business environment in Texas – tort reform to protect doctors and businesses from frivolous lawsuits, no state income tax, and positive job growth in recent years that has defied trends across the country. At the TEA Parties, Perry hinged on this success, harnessed the boiling anger in the crowds and used his relatable Texas twang and charisma to excite the Texas TEA movement like no one else.
The Governor began emphasizing his fiscal conservatism, something that resonated well and the most opportune of times, with the country’s attention squarely focused on bailouts and federal largesse emanating from Washington. The Wall Street Journal pointed to Perry as the prime example of a fiscally responsible state executive, juxtaposing him and Texas against the failing policies of Arnold Schwarzenegger and the struggling California. One of the often cited statistics that Perry uses to illustrate the success of his state is that “Texas created more jobs in 2008 than the rest of the states—combined.” A hefty trophy in a declining economy.
Perry also hit a home run with his championing of a Texas House resolution affirming the state’s sovereignty, stating that “all compulsory federal legislation that directs states to comply under threat of civil or criminal penalties or sanctions or that requires states to pass legislation or lose federal funding be prohibited or repealed.” He also rejected $500 million in federal stimulus funds because of the strings attached conditions that came with them.
His emphatic support for state’s rights and a particular quote led some to believe the Governor was ready to return the Lone Star State to the Republic of Texas era. “We’ve got a great union. There’s absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that. But Texas is a very unique place, and we’re a pretty independent lot to boot.” What this really did for the Governor though, was to stir up that indomitable Texan spirit that resides in every resident of the lower forty-eight’s largest state. It buoyed his support among the conservative base, and even garnered him national attention at the top of the Drudge Report, and in featured posts on Red State and Hot Air. Politico called Perry, a “Tea party darling,” and a rising star.
By the time the Texas state moratorium on fundraising that is in place during legislative sessions was lifted in June, Perry’s campaign was hitting full stride and the money came rolling in. The money that will be spent by Perry and Hutchison in this race will make heads spin, and each side has worked tirelessly to raise the funds needed for the tough, close fight being waged as we head for the March 2 primary in a state where political donations are not limited.
Each campaign reported their fundraising totals for the second half of 2009 this week, and the numbers demonstrate just how expensive this race will be. Hutchison’s campaign raised $6 million in the later half of last year, while Perry collected $7 million. The Senator has slightly more in the bank though with $12.3 million cash-on-hand to the Governor’s $11.6 million. In the sprint to the finish in March, much of that will be spent on television and radio advertising. Hutchison has spent more time on-air so far, even buying a short commercial during the Texas-Alabama BCS National Championship game to hit Perry on an issue she thinks she can make an impact with – transportation, and specifically toll roads.
The first chance for the candidates to punch back and forth in person comes with tonight’s initial gubernatorial debate in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Denton. The two heavy hitters, plus little known third candidate Debra Medina, will face off in their first public face-off in front of a panel of journalists and a live audience. Texas may not be the fabled old west anymore, but don’t think this won’t be a showdown of epic proportions. Each side is surely primed and ready with a bevy of accusatory questions, after hours of practice debates, in what promises to have just as many flying bullets as an old time shootout.
Of course, this race is not just about who is going to be the next GOP nominee for governor. This winner of this primary will most likely face a well-financed and high profile Democrat candidate in former Houston Mayor Bill White. The primary fight definitely has a Washington versus Texas feel to it, and the winner on March 2, may want to continue that tactic as White will surely be backed by much of the Democrat establishment inside the Beltway, eager to pick off the Lone Star State and move it into the Democrats column. They’ve made in-roads in the heavy urban environments of Dallas and Houston in recent elections and if their base is fired up, White could make it a close contest come November.
This campaign may also have implications for the 2012 presidential race. Some in the grassroots and the media have touted Perry as a prime presidential contender for the GOP in the battle to make Obama a one-term resident of the White House. Texas Monthly’s venerated political reporter, Paul Burka, writes in this month’s edition, “If Perry defeats Hutchison in the March 2 Republican primary and goes on to win a third full term in November, he will immediately join the crowd of potential presidential aspirants in 2012.”
For the record, Governor Perry’s campaign is on record saying that he does not harbor aspirations to throw his hat in the ring for President if he wins reelection in 2010, but that hasn’t stopped speculation or grassroots supporters from getting excited about the possibility, no matter how small it may be. First though, Perry has to beat Kay Bailey Hutchison in March, and although most of the recent polling suggests he’s leading, perhaps by double-digits, count on this to be a close, hard-fought, slugfest between the more conservative minded Perry and the more moderate Hutchison. After all, this is Texas and as they say, “everything is bigger in Texas.” That goes for political fights as well.
Full disclosure: Brad Jackson is a political consultant in Texas, formerly involved in this race.
