Americans took to the polls today for the first time since the hope and change of the 2008 elections. In three key races — a special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, and races for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia — Republicans look to begin their comeback, while Democrats looked to defend their territory. The White House and national democrats have inserted themselves directly into all three of these races in an effort to try and reenergize the throngs of voters who came out for Barack Obama and company just a year ago — but they did so for flawed candidates, none of whom have the appeal factor of Obama himself. Perhaps anticipating their pleas fell short, Democrat leaders spent most of the past few weeks spinning these off-year races as irrelevant.
In New York, the story has been that of a messy GOP fight between a liberal Republican and a Conservative, the former backed by national Republican figures in Washington, the latter a darling of the conservative grassroots, especially the TEA Party attendees that made such a splash earlier this year with nation-wide rallies against the principals and policies of the current administration in the nation’s capital. With Dede Scozzafava, the liberal Republican, having stepped down just a few days ago in the midst of the home stretch of this year’s race, NY-23 is now a contest between Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens. The seat, held by Republicans for ages, is open after it’s longtime Congressman left to serve the Obama Administration. A win by Hoffman would be a huge boost to the conservative movement in the Republican party and a testament to the philosophy that the party members still matter and that a party is not just it’s leaders in Washington but it’s members in the many counties, cities and townships throughout the country.
New Jersey looks like a dead heat with polling yesterday showing a neck and neck race between Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Jon Corzine. Governor Corzine is not exceedingly popular in his own state and has relied on the President to help boost his party base ahead of today’s election. Republicans have had the lead in statewide races in New Jersey before headed into election day and not come out ahead in the end, which may be due to flaws in polling, or in Republicans underestimating the Democratic machine in a labor-heavy state like New Jersey. More than a few dead people will be voting this evening in New Jersey for Corzine, you can count on it. Will that make enough of an impact at the ballot box to put Corzine over the top? We’ll see.
In Virginia, Democrat Creigh Deeds has tumbled in the final weeks of the campaign for Virginia’s Governor, turning what was a close race into one this evening that should be a solid win for the GOP’s Bob McDonnell. Recent polling had the Republican up by double digits going into todays’ vote, and some are speculating that McDonnell’s party could make a clean sweep of statewide offices in the Commonwealth. Deeds has also sought tried to leverage the Obama effect in recent weeks having the President cut TV and radio ads for him, and even getting some staff help from across the Potomac. Democrats have already begun posturing in this race to try and pin the blame on Deeds’ poor campaigning in an effort to distance Obama and Congressional Democrats from a bad loss.
President Obama’s direct appeal to voters and his close involvement in each of these races shows just how desperate the Democrats are to continue the illusion that their liberal policies of the last year are popular with the American public. A series of wins today by the GOP would show that all the unrest across the country over the current administration policies has finally begun to incur real world results at the ballot box, and depending on the margin, it could effect the outcome of Congressional fights on cap and trade and health care in the coming year. Regardless of the White House’s argument, these elections do matter in determining the course of the President’s agenda, whether he likes it or not.
Stay tuned below throughout the evening for election updates.
8:06 PM EST – MCDONNELL WINS VIRGINIA
Fox News is now calling Virginia Governor for Republican Bob McDonnell. They are also indicating that the GOP has won the Lt. Governor and the Attorney General races as well, giving them a sweep of the top three positions in Virginia state government.
8:21 PM EST – UPDATE ON VIRGINIA
Here’s an update on the other statewide offices in Virginia that are now being called for the GOP. Bill Bolling (R) has beaten Jody Wagner (D) for Lt. Governor. With 51% of precincts reporting, Bolling is up 59% to 41%. For Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli (R) has defeated Stephen Shannon (D). He’s up 60 – 40 with 52% of precincts reporting.
8:50 PM EST – EARLY NEW JERSEY NUMBERS
It’s still too early to call, but early results for New Jersey show Republican Chris Christie up 52 – 42 over Democrat Jon Corzine with Chris Daggett, the Independent, at 6%. If Daggett stays in single digits, it should be good news for Christie.
NY-23 polls close in ten minutes.
9:08 PM EST – NEW JERSEY GETTING CLOSER
The New Jersey race is getting closer. With 28% reporting, Christie is now up 50 – 44 – 6.
9:21 PM EST – NY-23 NUMBERS STARTING TO ROLL IN
Still way too early to call in NY-23 as the polls closed about 20 minutes ago, but numbers are starting to roll in. Conservative Doug Hoffman was just on Fox News and said he was, “cautiously optimistic” so far.
9:28 PM EST – CHRISTIE NUMBERS IMPROVE IN NEW JERSEY
There is now more than 37% of the New Jersey vote in and Christie has increased his lead to 52 – 41 – 6.
9:32 PM EST – SPOKE TOO SOON IN NEW JERSEY
Oh, New Jersey, you sure keep it interesting. Now with 44% of precincts reporting the race is getting closer. Christie is only up 49 – 44 – 6 at this point.
9:57 PM EST – CHRISTIE INCHING HIGHER
Republican Chris Christie is moving up in New Jersey. More than 64% of the vote is in and Christie is up 50 – 44- 5.
10:17 PM EST – HOFFMAN BEHIND IN NY-23
Conservative Doug Hoffman is behind at this point with 27% reporting, Democrat Bill Owens is up 51 – 44 – 5.
10:19 PM EST – CHRISTIE PROJECTED AS WINNER IN NEW JERSEY
Change has come to New Jersey and the GOP is up 2 – 0 so far tonight. Politico, Fox News and other outlets have called Republican Chris Christie as the winner with 80% of the vote in, Christie is up 50 – 44- 6.
10:38 PM EST – HOFFMAN CLOSING GAP IN NY-23
Conservative Doug Hoffman is looking a little better. With 54% reporting, Democrat Bill Owens is up 49 – 46 – 5.
10:47 PM EST – HOFFMAN DOWN BY MORE THAN 3,400 VOTES
Democrat Bill Owens is ahead of Conservative Doug Hoffman by 3,443 votes at this point: 44,759 to 41,313 votes.
10:55 PM EST – REAL CLEAR POLITICS ANALYST THINKS HOFFMAN MAY LOSE
From RCP: “10:45 — Apparently Syracuse area is coming in. I think Hoffman’s probably going to lose. –SEAN TRENDE”
11:09 PM EST – NY-23 STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL
It looks like it might be a tough haul for Conservative Candidate Doug Hoffman to make up the 3,000+ votes he needs to win, but there are several counties that will not report tonight and that may push him over the edge. Hoffman campaign folks still optimistic.
11:40 PM EST – HOFFMAN CLOSING ON OWENS
Only 2,500 votes now separate Doug Hoffman from Bill Owens in NY-23. Don’t count out Doug yet.
11:52 PM EST – NY-23 SWINGING BACK TOWARDS DEMOCRAT
Democrat Bill Owens is now ahead by more than 4,000 votes with more than 86% of the votes in. Hoffman is going to need a late surge to pull this one out, however, there are still as many as 10,000 absentee ballots left to count, so it’s not over just yet.
11:56 PM EST – FOX NEWS CALLS NY-23 FOR DEMOCRAT BILL OWENS
If this prediction holds, this is the one bright spot for Democrats tonight in what was otherwise an epic disaster for the President and his allies on Capital Hill. Conservative activists will surely call for the heads of the national and New York GOP figures who backed the liberal leaning Republican Dede Scozzafava over Conservative Doug Hoffman come sunrise.
12:18 AM EST – HOFFMAN CONCEDES IN NY-23
It’s officially over in NY-23, Democrat Bill Owens will be the first from his party to represent that district in nearly 100 years. Conservative Doug Hoffman has reportedly called Owens to concede. Look for this to be a target race when the seat comes back up in 2010.
Brad Jackson is Senior Editor of The New Ledger.
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