‘Tis the season to question whether all the green shoots everyone got so excited about are really weeds. For six months now, markets have been building an expectation of a powerful recovery in all sectors of the global economy.

The counterargument from the beginning has been that the only thing in sight which could drive a recovery is government stimulus and rebuilding depleted inventory. Also there is evidence in the available data that the cash-for-clunkers program (which is fiscal stimulus by another name) spurred a short-lived spike in manufacturing activity. And, there was a one-time rash of new orders for commercial airplanes in July that skewed all the data upward. To date there is no evidence of an uptick in consumer demand or in business investment, although the stats on the former are coming in less bad than originally feared.

All week long, that counterargument has been taking hold in markets. With the unexpectedly poor manufacturing and unemployment data released today, stock markets are weak again and government bonds are soaring. The 30-year bond, which has been the star of the show all week, is now yielding below 4% for the first time since the rally began last winter.

And this is harder to notice unless you’re looking closely: there are signs that corporate debt spreads have stopped compressing over the last two weeks. That’s a sign that risk aversion is starting to come back. Or at least some moderation in what has to be considered an unreasonable underpricing of risk these past few months.

Inflation? Forget about it. Dead as a doornail. And the dollar is sharply stronger today too.