Thomas Jefferson, the second Governor of Virginia and third President of these United States, once said, “A little rebellion now and then is a good thing and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical.” Virginia has not been a state with much rebellion over the years — since 1964, it had been reliably Republican when it came to every presidential race, and when it comes to the Old Dominion’s gubernatorial races, it can be reliably expected to elect either center-right Republicans, or center-left pro-business, pro-gun Democrats. This year’s election is different: It comes after Virginia tilted to Barack Obama in a strong way in the 2008 race, raising the question whether this was an indication of Obama’s unique strengths, or a definitive sign that Virginia has turned blue.

Now, the race to be the 71st Governor of Virginia is shaping up to be one of the most-watched races of the election cycle, and not just in the Old Dominion. Facing off this year are Republican Bob McDonnell, the state’s Attorney General, and State Senator Creigh Deeds, the Democrat. Deeds is the product of a surprising Democratic Primary, and many credit his late surge to victory over the presumed favorite — well-funded Clinton associate and former DNC head Terry McAuliffe — with the surprise endorsement of the Washington Post. But now, the endorsements seem to be going against Deeds, and for McDonnell.

Sheila Johnson, the billionaire co-founder of Black Entertainment Television and an influential Democratic donor, endorsed McDonnell, not Deeds, shocking many inside and outside the Beltway. Johnson has been a long time backer of Democrats in Virginia, including the State’s two U.S. Senators, Mark Warner and Jim Webb, as well as current Governor, and DNC Chair, Tim Kaine. Johnson, a African-American business leader in the state, said she was backing the GOP’s McDonnell because she believes he can turn around the state’s faltering economy. Johnson said, “From the beginning, Bob McDonnell has been very concerned about the economy. He has really laid out a roadmap for solving these problems.”

Johnson’s endorsement of McDonnell this week was just as surprising as the refusal of another Democrat to get behind Deeds. Douglas Wilder, Virginia’s first African-American Governor who served as the state’s Chief Executive from 1990 to 1994 has faced intense pressure from the White House to join Obama and other influential Democrats in their support for Deeds. Obama dispatched White House Political Director Patrick Gaspard to Richmond recently in an effort to woo the former Governor to their cause, but Wilder seems unimpressed with his party’s nominee. “Tell me what the man has done? I haven’t heard it.”

Wilder also noted that Deeds may have trouble with the African-American voters in Virginia. In speaking to Politico about black voters in Virginia, Wilder said, “Many people feel taken for granted and I think that was built into the decision Mrs. Johnson made.” McDonnell has made many overtures to Wilder in seeking his support having spoken to the former Governor several times. If the GOP nominee is able to get Wilder in his support column as well, it could spell major trouble for the Democrats and Deeds in November, something not lost on the White House.

In their courting of the former Governor, Wilder said the White House, “argued that keeping the governor’s mansion in Democratic hands was important for the president’s political standing.” With polls in New Jersey’s Gubernatorial contest already looking bad for Democrats, national figures in the party see the Virginia race as their hope to stop what may be the beginnings of a GOP comeback. From Wilder, “The case that they made is that in Virginia and New Jersey — the two states that are up for election — losing one is bad, but losing both would be devastating.”

Obama is not leaving this race just in the hands of his subordinates though, the President is making a concerted effort to help Deeds raise money as the Democrat faces an uphill climb in both the race for voters and the battle for bucks. August 6th will see Obama host a rally for Deeds just across from the District in McLean, then headlining a high-dollar fundraiser for the Democratic candidate.

McDonnell and Deeds faced off in their first debate this weekend, ratcheting up the intensity of the race as we reach the peak of summer. Each candidate knows the other quite well, having faced off in 2005 in a down-to-the-wire battle for Virginia’s Attorney General. The latest polls show McDonnell with a slim, three-point lead, 44% – 41%. That lead is made worse for Deeds as it shows a 10-point swing in the negative from the polling just one month ago. One of the key findings of the poll that looks to benefit McDonnell in this souring economy, “The Republican is trusted more than Deeds on taxes by 14 points… He also bests Deeds by two-to-one in terms of voter trust on government spending.”

With rising unemployment and floundering economic conditions looking to continue through the end of the year, if McDonnell can hold his grip with voters on fiscal issues, he may just win the day in November. You can bet President Obama, Rahm Emanuel and the rest of the Democratic Party establishment are going to do everything they can to stop it — with the other off-year governor’s race increasingly playing to the strengths of Republican candidate Chris Christie, the possibility of two Republican victories in two states that went for Obama is suddenly a realistic possibility. That may set a troublesome mark for Democrats, and a hopeful one for Republicans headed into the crucial 2010 Congressional elections.