Across the Sea of Japan, tensions are rising as the planned launch window of a medium range, North Korean Taepodong-2 rocket approaches. This launch, scheduled for the first week in April, has been billed by the communist North as a “Peaceful communications satellite launch.” Regardless of what manner of payload is strapped to the top of the rocket, this launch is first and foremost another in a series of tests of the poorly performing Taepodong.

The North Korean Missile Test

Just before the start of 2009, U.S. reconnaissance detected components that look like parts of a Taepodong-2 missile being moved via rail to the North Korean rocket test site on the east coast. This facility is quite primitive in comparison to anything that the United States or even India would have. Its position on the east coast of North Korea allows it to fire missiles eastward without having them be over (their) land, as well as giving them free access down range toward Japan. Likewise, there is some evidence that the port due south, a city named Kimchaek, is a primary shipping point for components and technology that North Korea sells to its customers such as Pakistan, Iran, and others working on long range rocket programs.

The Taepodong-2 is a 3 stage ballistic missile that likely shares quite a bit in common with the rocket Iran used (Shahab-5) to launch its first satellite earlier in 2009. There is quite a bit of evidence that Iran and North Korea are sharing developments and refinements in their rocket programs, and each country seems to leverage the other’s improvements.

Normal Taepodong flight path

If this new test follows previous North Korean launch tests, the rocket will fly eastward over Japan and splash into the Pacific several hundred miles down range. Given the track record of the Taepodong project, this will likely be another failure, with the malfunctioning rocket falling somewhere east of Japan after flying over that country in a somewhat out of control manner, causing a great deal of alarm for the Japanese public.

The U.S. Response

To date, the United States has sent several and conflicting messages. First, the message was that the U.S. Navy stands ready to intercept the launch if called to do so. The Navy has proven their ability to reach higher than anyone thought with their successful shoot down of U.S.A-193 last year. The Aegis destroyers and cruisers in the Pacific represent a credible threat to any North Korean launch, and would effectively demonstrate the utility of the ballistic missile defense program, as well as the futility of the North Korean long range missile program.

U.S. Navy Photo of USS Decatur missile launch

Since the initial saber-rattling, the Obama administration has quickly stood down the tough rhetoric, to the point that on March 30th, government officials publicly stated that they would likely do nothing about the North Korean launch. While the public position is one designed not to confront the North, the U.S. Navy has positioned multiple Aegis ships in theater, including the U.S.S John S. McCain (DDG-56) and the U.S.S Decatur (DDG-73). Decatur is important because it has successfully tracked and destroyed target missiles in tests of the coast of Hawaii. Unfortunately the shooter for U.S.A-193, U.S.S Lake Erie (CG-70), is not available, nor is the ace of the Pacific, U.S.S Shiloh (CG-67), which has scored multiple intercepts on the test range.

I would also put the odds of an attempted shoot-down by the U.S. Navy at very, very small. This will be a presidential level decision, and I don’t think President Obama would like to up the ante with China and North Korea at this point.

Japan May Stand Alone

In a clear shift from the past, the U.S. is publicly and visibly backing away from taking a strong protective stance of its close ally, Japan. This U.S. policy shift could provide a catalyst for a significant change in Japan (more on that in a bit) as the Japanese realizes that they must rely upon themselves.

In the graphic above, I have attempted to diagram the likely participants in any intercept of the Taepodong-2 launch, focusing on a Japanese Self Defense Forces lead role. The blue dots represent assets capable of taking the shot, with rings showing the nominal engagement range of the weapons. The red dot represents the North Korean launch site, with the wide red lines representing the announced flight path and the prior flight path of the Taepodong-2.

JSD Kongo underway

Foremost in this line up is one or several of Japan’s Aegis destroyers, lead by the JDS Kongo. Kongo is credible threat for a North Korean intercept. In December 2007, during a joint U.S.-Japanese exercise, the Kongo successfully tracked, engaged and destroyed a theater ballistic missile fired from the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, Hawaii using a Raytheon Standard-3 Aegis missile. In other words, it’s already done this on the practice field, and scored a kill. Kongo is currently sailing with the fleet forces of the ongoing exercise Foal Eagle being conducted in the Sea of Japan. The likely scenario should Japan decide to intercept would use a SM-3 missile during the Taepodong-2’s initial ascent phase, when it is moving at its slowest, and will fall over water rather than Japan.

JSDF Patriot battery

Also of note are the Patriot-3 batteries employed by the Japanese forces. These are the same intercept missiles that were so famous during the first Gulf War for being able to knock Iraqi SCUDs out of the sky. The Patriot-3 is a greatly enhanced system capable of engaging faster-moving and higher-altitude targets. The first battery is located in the north of Japan at Misawa Air Base. The announced flight path falls within the engagement range of the Patriot-3, though at this point the missile will be moving very fast and (as long as the rocket is working) at high altitude.

JSDF Patriot-3 on public display at Camp Narashino

Should the launch follow the same path as the prior Taepodong-2 launch, the second battery at Camp Narashino outside of Tokyo will also have the opportunity to take a shot, should Japan decide to try an intercept.

The decision to take the shot will be made at the highest levels of the Japanese government, and will likely include coordination with the U.S., though it is likely the current administration will never publicly acknowledge it. With over a decade of testing, it is clear that ballistic missile defense is successful when a large number of sensors work together to coordinate tracking and intercept. This means U.S. involvement at multiple levels, from the satellites that will detect the exhaust plume of the rocket within a few milliseconds of ignition, to the boost-phase sensors mounted on Air Force reconnaissance platforms like the RC-135 Cobra Ball aircraft, to the Aegis command and control system.

Geopolitical Fallout Of These Events

Should the North Korean launch happen, the U.S. media will amplify the notion that this missile could hit the United States. They will also mention (possibly in the same sentence) that the Norks are working hard to build nuclear weapons. While this is a serious concern, the ability to build a nuclear device small enough to be boosted by a missile is not even conceivable in the near future for the North Koreans. Where this launch will resonate the most will be in Tokyo and Beijing.

In Tokyo, this will be further evidence that they are no longer safe, and that they cannot count on the United States, in particular the untested Obama Administration, to look after Japan’s interests. There will likely be further pressure on the government to continue a slow transition towards a re-militarization of Japan. While I am sure the rookies in the White House and Foggy Bottom won’t know anything about this, having Japan re-embrace its Bushido way is something we must try to prevent. In Beijing, this will be a tremendous loss of face on one hand, and a very useful opportunity on the other. Beijing has played North Korea against Japan and the U.S., under the pretense that they can keep Kim Jong Il in check. A Taepodong launch would underscore the reality that no one can control him.

Should Japan decide to intercept and succeed, it will be another in a series of steps towards a re-militarization of Japan. With a rising global tide of nationalism brought on by economic hardship, there is a real danger of Japan deciding that it no longer wants or needs the U.S. as its guardian in Asia. Neither China and Korea have forgotten that tiny Japan has successfully conquered and occupied both countries multiple times over the last 1,000 years. A re-militarized Japan would re-establish many regional worries and fears, and could set the stage for disruptions between two of America’s most important trading partners (Japan and China).

The United States cannot afford for this to happen. This is a complex and entangled situation that can set in motion trends and changes to opinion that are contrary to our long-term interests. What is needed here is bold international leadership to solidify our allies and friends in the area and to intimidate North Korea and China into calling off this preposterous missile test. Sadly for the world, neither the freshman Senator who moved to the White House, nor the former first lady who took over the State Department has the background to orchestrate a firm response. Expect Japan to look out for itself, and if it does shoot down the Taepodong launch, the world will become a much more dangerous place.