Republican candidate Jim Tedisco has taken that lead in race for the NY-20 Congressional seat. On election night, Democrat Scott Murphy led by 59 votes. After two days of recanvassing in some of the counties, Tedisco has picked up enough votes to now lead by 12 votes.

As to the universal spin from Democrats that this is a “Republican seat” because Republicans have a big registration advantage, the column below by Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg has an excellent analysis.

People get hung up on registration differences way too much, in my opinion. I have never paid as much attention to registration as candidate performance. In fact, Stephen Shadegg, Barry Goldwater’s campaign manager in every one of his Senate campaigns and the guy who wrote the book (literally) about how to win elections, said that voter registration was the least predictive indicator of voter behavior.

As Stuart Rothenberg writes, New York’s 20th is “a Little Like Kissing Your Sister”:

Both parties’ Congressional campaign committees and the Democratic National Committee sent out press releases moments after all the votes were counted Tuesday night. The Democratic releases were nearly identical talking points. Democrats cited the GOP registration edge, argued Murphy had stormed back from more than 20 points down and asserted that they are confident that Murphy will expand his lead. Let’s look at the points one by one.

Much has been made of the Republican registration — far too much, even by those of us who should know better. You don’t need a doctorate in political science to know that registration is a lagging indicator and that what is important is how people usually vote.

Polling in the special election conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee’s independent expenditure arm asked party ID in two different ways, and the results are eye-opening.

When asked how they were registered, 30 percent of district respondents said that they were registered as Democrats, 23 percent said that they were registered independents and 44 percent said that they were registered Republicans — a 14-point GOP advantage.

But when those same respondents were asked how they usually vote, 28 percent said they usually or always vote Democratic, 34 percent responded that they were ticket-splitters, and 34 percent said that they usually or always vote Republican — a much smaller 6-point GOP edge.

People in this district may be registered as Republicans, but many simply haven’t been voting that way. The district is competitive. President Barack Obama won it (51 percent to 48 percent), now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) was elected to represent the district twice (with 53 percent and 62 percent) and President George W. Bush won it with only 54 percent in 2004. Bush won a very similarly configured district (then the 22nd) with just 50 percent in 2000. Democrats Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Rodham Clinton carried this district in 2006, and Sen. Charles Schumer (D) won it two years earlier.

What does this mean? It means much, though not all, of this talk about the huge Republican nature of the district is baloney.

Once the thousands of absentee ballots start to be counted, Tedisco will increase his margin and ultimately be the winner. Count on it.